Is throwing money at the mortgage market the solution?
With the credit crunch wreaking havoc on the global economy certain governments throughout the world have stepped in with bail out plans involving the injection of money into their individual banking systems. The reason behind this is to stave off the bad or `toxic? debt which they see as crippling to their countries' economies due to unstable institutions and negligible public borrowing.
But the big question on everyone's lips is, will this have the effect of kick starting the institutions lending again, and if it does, what how will it affect the individual and the public in general. The analysis off this problem will be based on the UK as that is where my financial experience stems. The situation within the UK may bare similarities with that of other countries but I am not in the position to comment on whether the outcomes would be similar or not because I would not be as au fait as to how their markets tend to function.
To most people the credit crunch is all about banks not having the money to lend. So it is fair to assume that if you give the banks the money that will solve the problem. Sorry this is not the case in fact this is actually far from the case. Banks not having the money to lend is only one aspect of the problem. Most banks are "once bitten twice shy" to coin a phrase. They have lent badly and are now paying the price, it is this issue that will be with us way beyond any bailout plan has been agreed and distributed.
House prices are the most important element of the current financial situation, and the prices are dropping fast and are showing no sign of stopping any time soon. Because of this drop in value, lenders are having to be extra vigilant when it comes to lending money from now on. This is particularly relevant when it comes to loan to value (LTV), which is the amount lent in relation to the value of the property. For example, in 2007, lenders were giving 95%, 100% and even 125% of the value of properties.
Now in a healthy market there is nothing wrong with this type of lending. For example, if you give a 125% loan on a house valued at 100,000 then the resulting loan would work out at 125,000. With a buoyant market the house prices may increase at an average of 10% per annum over the next three years. The resulting LTV would equate to 93%. So mathematically we can see that there would be nothing wrong with the initial 125% loan in that there would be negligible risk involved.
But the problem that we face is that house prices are going in the opposite direction. The decline is at least 10% and analysts figure that it could get worse. So, if 100,000 was lent on an 85,000 property then in the same three year time span the loan could have actually increased to 118% LTV. Now I am sure you would agree that in this present climate that this sort of loaning is both irresponsible and detrimental to all involved.
So what does the future hold for the market and will the bailout be the solution to the problem. Well I can only give my own personal professional opinion and nothing is set in stone but realistically I would perceive the bailout as having very little effect. They simply cannot lend at the high loan to values even though they have been committed in 2009 to lend at the levels reached in 2007. You see the majority of loans being agreed at present are dealing with people coming out of rates that had been pre-arranged over the last 5 years. Due to the downward spiral of house prices these people are going to be pushing the LTV up.
Another thing to consider is the high amount of self certification mortgages that have been arranged over the last 5 years. These types of mortgages will definitely be a rarity because they are seen as to high a risk and the institutions don?t want to know. And even if they are available the LTV will be far lower so what are the consequences in that scenario?
So whilst I do welcome the money that is being injected into the finance market I sadly think that whilst property continues to fall and lenders fail to have the pre 2008 appetite for lending it is more than likely just going to be stockpiled. This will have a domino effect as house prices will continue to fall because of the lack of lending at the right LTV with the right lending criteria which again will make lenders even less willing to lend. I have to say this is quite a quandary and I honestly don't see how it can be stopped until someone has the bravery to just lend knowing the calculated risk it represents I think it is fondly known as taking a punt!.
But the big question on everyone's lips is, will this have the effect of kick starting the institutions lending again, and if it does, what how will it affect the individual and the public in general. The analysis off this problem will be based on the UK as that is where my financial experience stems. The situation within the UK may bare similarities with that of other countries but I am not in the position to comment on whether the outcomes would be similar or not because I would not be as au fait as to how their markets tend to function.
To most people the credit crunch is all about banks not having the money to lend. So it is fair to assume that if you give the banks the money that will solve the problem. Sorry this is not the case in fact this is actually far from the case. Banks not having the money to lend is only one aspect of the problem. Most banks are "once bitten twice shy" to coin a phrase. They have lent badly and are now paying the price, it is this issue that will be with us way beyond any bailout plan has been agreed and distributed.
House prices are the most important element of the current financial situation, and the prices are dropping fast and are showing no sign of stopping any time soon. Because of this drop in value, lenders are having to be extra vigilant when it comes to lending money from now on. This is particularly relevant when it comes to loan to value (LTV), which is the amount lent in relation to the value of the property. For example, in 2007, lenders were giving 95%, 100% and even 125% of the value of properties.
Now in a healthy market there is nothing wrong with this type of lending. For example, if you give a 125% loan on a house valued at 100,000 then the resulting loan would work out at 125,000. With a buoyant market the house prices may increase at an average of 10% per annum over the next three years. The resulting LTV would equate to 93%. So mathematically we can see that there would be nothing wrong with the initial 125% loan in that there would be negligible risk involved.
But the problem that we face is that house prices are going in the opposite direction. The decline is at least 10% and analysts figure that it could get worse. So, if 100,000 was lent on an 85,000 property then in the same three year time span the loan could have actually increased to 118% LTV. Now I am sure you would agree that in this present climate that this sort of loaning is both irresponsible and detrimental to all involved.
So what does the future hold for the market and will the bailout be the solution to the problem. Well I can only give my own personal professional opinion and nothing is set in stone but realistically I would perceive the bailout as having very little effect. They simply cannot lend at the high loan to values even though they have been committed in 2009 to lend at the levels reached in 2007. You see the majority of loans being agreed at present are dealing with people coming out of rates that had been pre-arranged over the last 5 years. Due to the downward spiral of house prices these people are going to be pushing the LTV up.
Another thing to consider is the high amount of self certification mortgages that have been arranged over the last 5 years. These types of mortgages will definitely be a rarity because they are seen as to high a risk and the institutions don?t want to know. And even if they are available the LTV will be far lower so what are the consequences in that scenario?
So whilst I do welcome the money that is being injected into the finance market I sadly think that whilst property continues to fall and lenders fail to have the pre 2008 appetite for lending it is more than likely just going to be stockpiled. This will have a domino effect as house prices will continue to fall because of the lack of lending at the right LTV with the right lending criteria which again will make lenders even less willing to lend. I have to say this is quite a quandary and I honestly don't see how it can be stopped until someone has the bravery to just lend knowing the calculated risk it represents I think it is fondly known as taking a punt!.
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10:09 AM
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